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The determinants of Government yield spreads in the euro area
This paper analyses the determinants of sovereign spreads in the euro area from January 2002 to May 2012. The objective is to disentangle the role of country-specific fundamentals, driven by fiscal and macroeconomic factors, from what is referred to as contagion. Following the existing empirical literature, the work estimates a model of the determinants of 10-year yield spreads relative to Germany for ten euro zone countries. The results show that since the eruption of the 2007-2008 financial crisis, sovereign spreads have shown a time-dependent contagion component. On average, such a component explains almost one third of the spreads dynamic in 2009-2010 and almost 10 per cent since 2011. However, results at the country level are quite different between core and peripherals.