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Sovereign Debt, Real Interest Rate and Gold Pricing
In this paper, we derive a structural relationship between the gold price and the U.S. TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities) yields under the fact that both the gold and the U.S. dollar are international currency anchors. The relationship can be interpreted as defining the fair value and the risk premium of gold in an economy model where inflation indexed bonds are traded. The fair value measures the level of the gold's value as a reserve equity of central banks. While the risk premium reflects a preference between the gold and the U.S. dollar.