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Creditors’ Seniority and Sovereign Risk: Evidence from Debt Composition

We provide new evidence on the de facto seniority structure of sovereign debt. Using a measure of the Relative Percentage in Default (RPID) by creditor group for 119 low-income and emerging market countries over the period 1980–2022, we show that debt owed to the IMF and the World Bank is, on average, the most senior, followed by debt owed to official bilateral creditors. Private creditors, notably bondholders and commercial banks, are on average junior to official creditors, with commercial banks being the least prioritized group for repayments. Beyond characterizing the seniority hierarchy, our empirical analysis shows that creditor composition has economically meaningful implications for sovereign risk. […]